The fall of Avdiivka to Russian forces after another mammoth siege is a sobering reality for all the belligerents of the Ukraine war, which now enters its third year. The coming year will be tough for everyone – tough for Russia, even tougher for Ukraine – though neither are likely to fold in 2024. It …
Continue reading Ukraine and the Return of Industrial-Age War to Europe, by Michael Clarke
Events are about to move very quickly in Ukraine. Michael Clarke assesses the current military situation and outlines the importance of the air campaign in the coming battles. The much-heralded Ukrainian offensive cannot now be long delayed. Like the rest of the world, the Russians will know it’s started when Ukraine’s heavy metal – its …
Yet again, Kremlin behaviour is strengthening the European and American consensus against its invasion of Ukraine, whatever gains it thinks it is making winning some new friends in countries like Israel, Mali and South Africa. With a mixture of wild rhetoric and military signals, Russia has convinced the western alliance that it must invest in …
‘I am not afraid of an army of lions led by sheep; I am afraid of an army of sheep led by lions.’ So, reputedly, said Alexander the Great, acknowledging that any army can fight effectively if it is led with intelligence, cunning and courage. The Ukraine war is moving into a stage where both …
Continue reading It’s as much about how you learn as how you fight
Ukraine’s counter-offensive against Russian forces has been anticipated for some time. But few thought it would be a two-pronged affair. Or that it would be such a surprise package for the Russians. In less than a week, Ukrainian forces have taken back well over half the territory it took the Russians five months of grinding …
Continue reading Russian Boots on the Ground, but in the Wrong Place: Ukraine’s Counter-offensive
By Michael Clarke, Friday 9 September 2022. I was lecturing at the RCDS this morning. I was all done by 12.00 and I spoke with the Commandant for a while and then was back on my way to Hyde Park Tube. But I found myself joining droves of people converging on Hyde Park entrance and …
Continue reading Silent and loud: the 96-gun death salute. A personal note.
Winter is coming in Ukraine and both Kyiv and Moscow have good reason to think carefully about when it will arrive and how it will make a difference to their military fortunes on the ground. Following his article on this subject in the Sunday Times on 4 September, Michael Clarke offers some of the detail …
by Michael Clarke, 1 August 2022 From a strategic point of view, we are entering the second phase of the Ukraine War. If the Ukrainians were not conquered within the first few days, this war was always likely to escalate. President Putin sees no option but to double down on his ambitions and escalation follows, …
Continue reading A Bad Peace or a Good War? Decision Time for Everyone
By Michael Clarke, 8 July 2022 The war in Ukraine will be determined by a series of pendulum swings as military advantage shifts according to whether we are looking at the next two months, the next six months, or in a year’s time. Michael Clarke looks at the dynamics of the conflict now that Russia …
Continue reading The Pendulums of War: Three Phases, Three Fighting Fronts
We have had to keep revising our interpretation of President Putin’s motives in Ukraine as each new threshold has been crossed in this crisis. And China’s Xi Jinping, always hard to second guess, is showing his hand more as events tumble over themselves. The two great dictators of the twenty-first century may each have come …
Continue reading Putin and Xi Jinping Flirt With the Attractions of a Wider European War
Tipping Point 
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